PG: Analysis of the first half of year 2019

[Introduction] In the first half of the year, the propylene glycol market was mostly weak, and the domestic market price fell to a new low in recent years. Colleagues due to weak domestic market conditions, the number of imported propylene glycol decreased, and the number of exports increased.

In the first half of 2019, although domestic malondione was not enough to increase production, the overall production release increased. According to Zhuochuang’s calculation, the output increased by 7.29% compared with the same period of the previous year. The propylene glycol import volume decreased by 6.45% each year; the export volume increased by 13.81%. . In terms of price, the domestic propylene glycol market went up first and then stopped. It continued to fall to new historical lows in recent years. The average price in the first half of the year was 7792.59 yuan / ton, a 20.14% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average import price fell by 6.17%. Exports The average price fell by 21.05%.

In terms of production, except for May, the monthly production of propylene glycol in 2019 is higher than the monthly output in 2018. Of which, the year-on-year increase in propylene glycol was larger in January, mainly due to the fact that after the Linggu device exited the market at the end of 2018 The plant is more optimistic about the market for dimethyl carbonate, a joint product, and the equipment loads have increased a lot, which has led to a large increase in propylene glycol production. During the Spring Festival in February, there were also devices to reduce the load and maintenance, but compared to last year, there were still more devices in operation. Compared with the same period of last year, the output of the unit is still more. In the subsequent March to June, due to the continuous decline in market prices, the propylene glycol units started and stopped staggered, and the device load was mostly maintained at about 70%. The propylene glycol output changed little from March to May last year. Because of the slow upward price, propylene glycol production has gradually increased. Prices in June both fell this year and last year, which also caused a relative decrease in propylene glycol production in June compared to last month.

The changes in the volume of propylene glycol imports are basically consistent with the domestic market price of propylene glycol. The price of propylene glycol slowly increased in the first quarter, and the amount of propylene glycol imported also gradually increased. In March, the import increased more in the Spring Festival. The relatively large change is the price of imported propylene glycol. After April, the price of imported supplies has gradually increased. This is mainly due to the change in the structure of imported propylene glycol. Due to cost reasons, it is difficult for imported industrial propylene glycol to be produced at a lower price. There is competition, only a small amount of fixed downstream demand is quantified, and the proportion of industrial-grade sources of supply is reduced; while domestic pharmaceutical-grade propylene glycol is still limited by certain technical barriers, and it is difficult to meet downstream demand, so the proportion of imported Chinese medicine-grade propylene glycol increases The average price rose accordingly.

The export price trend of propylene glycol is basically consistent with the domestic propylene glycol market price trend. The export volume was low in April-May, mainly due to weak export demand, low external prices and strong competition. In June, the domestic market entered a new low stage. Demand is concentrated, and domestic factories are also actively maintaining the export market. The number of exports has increased significantly, an increase of 47.11% month-on-month, and an increase of 46.11% year-on-year.

Taken together, domestic propylene glycol is still in a relatively oversupply situation, and terminal demand is not well transmitted. Relying on rigid demand and exports to ease shipping pressure, and the impact of imported sources on the domestic market has remained at a low level. Supply and demand dominated.