[Introduction] Sudden public health events disrupted the normal rhythm of the market. In the first half of 2020, the maleic anhydride market hit a record low in terms of price, supply and demand, etc. Thanks to the effective domestic anti-epidemic achievements, the market quickly recovered after experiencing a short darkness. In the second half of the year, the market repair may be sustainable, but we still need to be cautiously optimistic
-Market trend
According to statistics, the average price of major domestic maleic anhydride in the first half of 2020 was 5,980 yuan/ton, down 8.76% year-on-year. Taking the Shandong market prices in major producing areas as an example, the high point in the first half of the year was at 6,700 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, the low point was at 4,300 yuan/ton in early April, and the price fluctuation range was 2,400 yuan/ton. Specifically, the domestic maleic anhydride market showed a “V” trend in the first half of the year, experiencing a trough in the first quarter and a recovery period in the second quarter. From May to June, the ex-factory prices of major markets remained in the range of 5400-6000 yuan/ton. During this period, the starting load, output of maleic anhydride and the output of downstream main products have all returned to normal levels in previous years.
-Supply side
In general, during the most difficult period in the first quarter, domestic maleic anhydride manufacturers were generally forced to significantly reduce the operating load of the device in response to the unfavorable procurement channels and high product inventory caused by the epidemic, which led to the first quarter. In particular, the production of maleic anhydride in February-February decreased significantly compared with the same period in previous years. However, as the market trend improved in the second quarter, the start-up load of the maleic anhydride plant quickly recovered, and the output basically recovered to the same level as in previous years. In addition, the epidemic situation has also delayed the commissioning of the new domestic maleic anhydride plant, and supply-side pressure has not yet expanded.
According to the calculation of the starting load data, the total theoretical output of domestic maleic anhydride in January-June was 427,100 tons, a decrease of 3.63% year-on-year; of which, the output in February was 42,900 tons, which was the lowest value in the first half of the year, and the highest value was June 85,900 tons. In terms of technology, the output of the n-butane method was 318,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.37%; the output of the benzene method was 108,900 tons, an increase of 5.93% year-on-year.
-Demand side
Affected by public health incidents, the downstream recovery of unsaturated resin terminals has been slow. The start of mainstream resin companies after the Spring Festival has been postponed to late February, and the start of some SMEs has been postponed to early March. This has led to the resin market starting and production in the first quarter. Continued downturn. As can be seen from Figure 3, the impact of the epidemic on the main downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated in the first quarter, especially the minimum output of 26,700 tons in February also refreshed the monthly since 2009 The output is historically low. After entering the second quarter, terminal orders obviously resumed, and unsaturated resin construction and production increased synchronously. From May to June, it has basically recovered to the normal level of previous years. This has also become the most important driving factor for the rebound of the maleic anhydride market in the second quarter. According to statistics from Zhuochuang, the average load of unsaturated resin in China from January to June 2020 was 27.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.97 percentage points; the total output from January to June was 705,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.25%.
-Foreign trade
According to customs statistics, the total domestic exports from January to May 2020 were 33,574.613 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21%. The high-speed growth momentum that began in 2018 was ended; the total export value was US$28,481,343, a year-on-year decrease of 23.28%; the average export price was 848.3 USD/ton, down 12.61% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the export market rose first and then declined. The data from January to March still maintained rapid growth. However, after March, the outbreaks of traditional export markets in Europe, South Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and other places have occurred one after another, and the maleic anhydride foreign trade market has been severely hit. The export data has fallen steeply since April. As the current overseas epidemic situation is still grim and there is still great uncertainty in the direction of the market outlook, the export market in the second half of the year is also not optimistic. The annual export data may fall for the first time since 2018.
-Outlook for the second half of the year
Regarding the market in the second half of 2020, Zhuo Chuang believes that although there are still large uncertainties in the development of overseas epidemic situations, under the support of domestic policies, the maleic anhydride and downstream markets still continue to resume expectations, but the overall market still has a gap compared to previous years.
In general, the first half of the winter has passed, and the second half is bright ahead. The maleic anhydride market will continue to improve compared with the first half of the year. It is expected that the market price will be high before the national holiday in the third quarter. The mainstream market ex-factory price may reach 6000-6500 yuan/ton, and some market prices may reach 7000 yuan/ton. . For the rest of the time, the mainstream ex-factory price may remain in the range of 5,000-6000 yuan/ton, and it is also necessary to be alert to the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices or the price of the financial market.