Introduction
After experiencing the V bottom at the end of March and the beginning of April, phthalic anhydride has entered a long-term interval fluctuation market. Although the rise and fall trends are frequent, it is always difficult to break through.
Entering 2020, under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic, downstream demand has continued to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride has been in a downward cycle since New Year’s Day. At the end of March and early April, phthalic anhydride fell to the lowest point of the year and then rebounded. Since mid-April, phthalic anhydride has entered a period of interval fluctuations, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower ranges. Taking the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China as an example, the low point is 4600 yuan/ton, the high point is 5300 yuan/ton, and the fluctuation range is only 700 yuan. /Ton. In this four-month volatile market, traders often operate back-to-back, and downstream purchases have also changed their previous purchasing ideas, and they have mostly changed to take-and-use, basically keeping the risk to a minimum. In an economic environment with too many uncertain factors in 2020, this move is not difficult to understand.
What are the factors that restrict the upward breakthrough of phthalic anhydride and the downward breakthrough? The most critical one is the raw material level. It can be seen from Figure 2 that the ortho-benzene market in 2020 can be described as unchanging. Starting from April, the frequency of fluctuations in the listed prices of ortho-benzene plants has been at a low level in recent years. After mid-June, Sinopec The listed price of o-benzene in East China has been at the level of 4,400 yuan/ton. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the price of aromatic products in 2020 is mostly low, xylene has been hovering at more than 3,000 for a long time, o-benzene has been at a price of more than 4,000 for a long time, and the port inventory of o-benzene has risen to a high level in recent years, starting from May In the beginning, the stocks of phthalene ports in East China have been at a high position of 30,000 to 40,000 tons. The domestic supply of o-benzene is sufficient. The downstream o-phthalic anhydride factories have access to external o-benzene at a lower position in the early stage. The demand for port o-benzene spot is low, and the shipment of o-benzene market traders is blocked, and inventory decline is not easy, which has also become a restriction on the market. A major factor of change.
When the price of o-phthalic anhydride has been hovering at more than 4,000 positions for a long time, the guidance of o-phthalic anhydride for the entire price of phthalic anhydride has lost the opportunity. The profitability of o-phthalic anhydride has been significantly improved this year. The adjustment of commodity prices has become less active, and this has resulted in that the pricing of the entire phthalic anhydride market has become dominated by naphthalene phthalic anhydride, and the tone of the price adjustment of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is also mostly affected by the auction price of industrial naphthalene.
Industrial naphthalene fluctuates frequently, but since mid-April, the rise and fall have been frequent, and the profitability of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has become more and more difficult. First, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is restricted by the price of orthophthalic anhydride. Its price advantage. Second, the processing cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is high, and the overall cost is also high. Since May, naphthalene phthalic anhydride has entered a continuous loss stage. In this case, it is difficult for naphthalene phthalic anhydride to make a profit. Big. From these points of view, it is difficult for phthalic anhydride to break upwards, and it is also difficult to break downwards. As a result, phthalic anhydride has been in a range of fluctuations and it is difficult to change.
From the perspective of profit performance, in 2020, the profitability of o-phthalic anhydride and naphthalene phthalic anhydride can be described as two days of ice and fire. The price of o-phthalic anhydride is relatively low, and it has obtained good profits. At present, this year , Aromatic products are difficult to break through the current low price level, so the profit of o-phthalic anhydride may be sustained. Under the pressure of the cost of industrial naphthalene, the loss of naphthalene phthalic anhydride may be difficult to improve. Although the loss intensifies in the later period, some factories may save and stop plans, but the improvement is still uncertain.
So can there be a major breakthrough in phthalic anhydride in the third and fourth quarters? Judging from the current situation, it is a bit difficult. First, it is difficult for o-benzene to return to the price above 6000, and second, naphthalene phthalic anhydride cannot bear long-term losses, and some changes will inevitably be made. This causes upwards and downwards, and costs are constrained. , The upward profit margin is too large, the downstream resistance is intensified, and the downward cannot allow itself to lose too much, and it is difficult to appear particularly low prices.
From the above points, the range of phthalic anhydride market may continue to fluctuate in the third and fourth quarters, but the space may be enlarged, and the overall range of fluctuations may be enlarged to more than 1,000 yuan/ton. At present, the industry still has big expectations for the golden nine and silver ten. First, after the off-season, there will be greater support for the recovery of demand. Second, the price of phthalic anhydride is not high. Once it is promoted, it will be less risky. Next, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement will be mobilized, and overall trading will improve.