MMA: How will the China market go in September — export pressure and new capacity release expectations!
Approaching September, the traditional peak season for the overall domestic methyl methacrylate upstream and downstream markets is coming soon, but under the influence of the new coronavirus epidemic, the overall international and domestic demand market levels have varying degrees of impact. With the gradual changes in domestic and foreign market conditions, what aspects did the overall market trend of methyl methacrylate affect in September?
First of all, the overall supply of methyl methacrylate in the domestic market has become more abundant.
As of the date of publication, the domestic production capacity of methacrylic acid and its esters is 1.56 million tons per year, and the actual operating load rates of domestic methyl methacrylate production enterprises have maintained normal load operation, and some manufacturers have even maintained high load operation. Therefore, the overall domestic supply of methacrylic acid and its esters has basically maintained ample supply, except for centralized parking and maintenance in a few times. In addition, the newly-built production capacity in the domestic methyl methacrylate market is expected to be put into operation from the end of the third quarter of 2021 to around the fourth quarter of 2021. For example, Shandong Lihuayi’s 100,000 tons/year methyl methacrylate plant, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 90,000 tons/year methyl methacrylate plant, Jiangsu Jiankun’s 150,000 tons/year methyl methacrylate plant, etc., are expected to end By the end of 2021, the domestic new production capacity of methyl methacrylate will reach around 430,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach around 1.99 million tons/year.
Secondly, the performance of domestic downstream demand is slightly sluggish.
The recent performance of the overall domestic demand for methyl methacrylate has been slightly sluggish, especially due to the downturn in the real estate industry, and the overall order atmosphere for downstream construction materials such as downstream coatings and emulsions is sluggish. From the perspective of the PMMA sheet industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of domestic methyl methacrylate downstream applications, due to the large price difference between the domestic methyl methacrylate new material and the cracked material market price, the recent domestic downstream users of PMMA sheet are mostly buying The cracked methyl methacrylate products of regular channels are mainly produced as raw materials, and the enthusiasm for purchasing new methyl methacrylate products in the market is mostly maintained on a wait-and-see attitude.
Third, the overall supply and demand of the foreign methyl methacrylate market has gradually returned to normal. The increase in shipping freight and the shortage of container resources have caused some holders to export sluggishly.
South Korea’s Lotte methacrylic acid and its ester equipment will gradually return to normal in the near future since the shutdown on July 15, 2021. Saudi Aramco’s methyl methacrylate will maintain a 50% operating load rate in the early stage, and it will also be near the end of August 2021. Gradually resume normal operation. Therefore, the recent international methyl methacrylate US dollar market continues to maintain a trend of consolidation, and the high offer prices in some regions such as Europe and the United States have fallen slightly. Compared with previous years, the domestic methyl methacrylate export atmosphere is positively improving this year. However, due to the recent increase in shipping freight prices and the shortage of container resources and other factors, the negotiation of export orders for some holders has been restricted.
In summary, the traditional peak season for domestic methyl methacrylate sales is gradually approaching in September, affecting the overall domestic methyl methacrylate market trend in September mainly based on the overall operating load of the existing domestic methyl methacrylate plants, The actual production and purchase demand of the domestic downstream terminal industry of methyl methacrylate, the increase in shipping freight, the shortage of container resources, and the gradual return to normal operation of the methyl methacrylate production equipment in the international market, the overall domestic export situation. It is recommended that short-term traders wait for clear information guidance.