Introduction
The year 2021 has passed. In this year when there is no one in the past and it is hard to come by in the future, the domestic maleic anhydride market has performed exceptionally, and successively hit record highs in terms of supply and demand, price, and profitability. Looking forward to 2022, maleic anhydride may gradually slip from its peak and quietly return to its original trajectory.
Price – a large year-on-year increase, the average price and the highest price refresh the historical record
In 2021, the domestic maleic anhydride market will run at a high level, and the annual average price and the highest price will both set new historical records. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the average domestic maleic anhydride market price in 2021 will reach 11,352 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 65%, becoming the second highest in the past 14 years after 11,426 yuan/ton in 2013, a refresh since 2014. The record high in the past eight years. At the same time, the market price once hit the 18,000 yuan/ton mark in 2021, which also successfully refreshed the high price record of 14,300 yuan/ton in 2017, becoming the highest price since Zhuochuang Information data tracking in 2008.
Supply and demand—historically both broke the million-ton mark
On the supply side, the entry of new production capacity into the market and the increase in industrial construction have driven the continuous growth of maleic anhydride production. From 2020 to 2021, domestic production of 330,000 tons/year of maleic anhydride has been put into production due to the commissioning of new plants, technological transformation, and the reactivation of idle plants; at the same time, stimulated by factors such as high profits, the domestic maleic anhydride industry will start construction in 2021 Compared with last year, it increased by 9.97 percentage points to 56.65%. Driven by the improvement of production capacity, the domestic output of maleic anhydride in 2021 will reach 1,027,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.86%, breaking the million-ton mark for the first time.
In terms of demand, major areas such as unsaturated resins and exports continued to make efforts to boost downstream demand to over one million. In 2021, the scale of domestic unsaturated resin production capacity will continue to expand, and new devices from mainstream or large-scale production enterprises such as Shandong Kaiwell, Shandong Feiyuan, Jiangsu Changzhou Tianma, Fujian Zhangzhou Xinyang, Guangdong Yunfu Chenbao will continue to enter the market, and domestic unsaturated resin output will continue to expand. It increased by 10.57% year-on-year to 2.011 million tons; the overseas market demand is also strong, and the demand in developing countries or regions such as South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America has resumed growth. Under the influence of public health events and other factors, the European region has a large demand for domestic maleic anhydride products. From January to November 2021, the domestic export of maleic anhydride surged by 126.88% year-on-year to 130,000 tons. Overall, the domestic downstream demand for maleic anhydride in 2021 is about 1.0284 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.08%.
Profits – all process profits have reached historical highs
The price of maleic anhydride breaking new highs in 2021 will naturally push the profitability of each process to a high level. Under the background of the oversold and rebound of international oil prices, although the price trend of the main raw materials of maleic anhydride, hydrogenated benzene and n-butane is also strong, the high operation of the price of maleic anhydride, which is much higher than the historical level for most of the time in 2021, still makes the industry profitability. beyond the past. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the average price of hydrogenated benzene in 2021 will reach 6,920 yuan/ton, up 89.35% year-on-year; the average price of n-butane will reach 4,751 yuan/ton, up 49.30% year-on-year; the average profit of domestic benzene process maleic anhydride is 2,311 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 64.13%; the average profit of the n-butane method reached 4,479 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 166.61%. The average profit of the benzene method and the n-butane method both refreshed the highest level since 2013.
Looking forward to 2022 – supply and demand data may maintain growth, prices and profits will fall year-on-year
From 2021 to 2022, domestic maleic anhydride and downstream unsaturated resin production capacity will be increased, and maleic anhydride production and downstream demand may continue to grow. However, judging from the current situation, the growth rate of maleic anhydride production in 2022 will be significantly greater than that of downstream demand, and the market supply pressure may increase quarter by quarter and will be concentrated in the second half of the year. Under the influence of supply pressure and the high base in 2021, the price of maleic anhydride and industry profits will likely fall year-on-year in 2022.