China PG: Prices up 10% in the week after CNY holiday

[Introduction] After the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene glycol market price started to rise. Judging from the average market price in Shandong, the price rose from 15,600 yuan/ton before the festival to 17,200 yuan/ton (ex-factory) in just one week, a price increase of 10% .

Although domestic demand was weak before the Spring Festival, factories received good export orders and inventories remained low. After the holiday, export orders were still connected. In addition, individual installations in Shandong were shut down, boosting market confidence, promoting factory offers to increase, and receiving limited orders. The domestic downstream has recovered slowly, and a small amount of goods has been followed up.

Supply of Influencing Factors

Before the Spring Festival, the Shandong Wells plant was restored, but the production load was not full, and other plants were basically normal before the festival. Returning from the holiday, a set of small devices of Shandong Shida Yankuang Guohong and Depu successively shut down for maintenance, which reduced the market supply and kept the factory inventory at a low level. The Yankuang Guohong unit is expected to be overhauled for about 10 days. The recovery time of the Depu small unit is undetermined, and the downtime is expected to be longer.

Influencing factor needs

The main driving force behind this wave of higher prices came from foreign trade orders. Some export orders were locked before the Spring Festival, laying the foundation for factories to increase prices after the festival. Under the bullish expectation after the holiday, the negotiation of export orders is active, the time for factories to arrange orders is prolonged, and the intention to sell in limited quantities is strong.

Influencing factors of raw materials

The rise in international crude oil prices during the Spring Festival boosted energy and chemical products, making many chemical products booming after the holiday. For propylene oxide, in addition to the rising cost of propylene and liquid chlorine, factories in the north concentrated on reducing burdens or overhauling after the holiday, and the spot supply was tightened.

Outlook

After the price continued to rise, the domestic downstream factories slowly followed up, especially the unsaturated resin factories are still operating at a low level. The overall operating load of the domestic unsaturated resin market this week was only around 4%. At the same time, other raw materials such as ethylene glycol, phthalic anhydride, The prices of maleic anhydride and other products fluctuate frequently, so the attitude towards raw material procurement is not clear, so the high-priced propylene glycol transactions are generally normal, and the market atmosphere is flat near the weekend. However, judging from the current order reception situation, the factory inventory will remain low in the short term, and the supply side support will continue, and the price of propylene glycol may continue to be high.