Import data analysis
In May 2022, China’s import of propylene glycol was 6,581.51 tons, up 57.09% from the previous month and 63.13% from the previous year. The average import price of the month was us $2,385.93 / ton, down 6.33% month-on-month and up 6.73% year-on-year. However, the cumulative import volume from January to May decreased compared with the same period last year. The total amount of propylene glycol imported by China from January to May was 27,744.47 tons, down 5.88% year-on-year.
The increase in Imports in May was mainly due to low imports in April, which is within the normal range of fluctuations. From January to May, compared with the same period of last year, the decrease in the number reflects, first, sufficient domestic supply and improved self-sufficiency. Second, due to the high international crude oil price, the cost side downward transmission, high import price also inhibits part of the demand.
From the perspective of main import trading partners, Propylene glycol imported into China mainly comes from Thailand, South Korea, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Singapore. Thailand ranks first, mainly from Dow’s Thai factory. Other imported brands include LyondellBasell and SKC of South Korea.
Export data analysis
In May 2022, the export volume of propylene glycol was 16,639.62 tons, up 14.33% month-on-month and 24.51% year-on-year; The average export price was $2,002.18 / ton, down 13.33% month-on-month and 16.13% year-on-year. From January to May, China exported 76,029.42 tons of propylene glycol, up 37.9% year on year.
The reasons for the increase in export quantity are as follows: high energy prices in Europe and the United States, and cost pressure inhibits production enthusiasm; At the same time, the dollar price is higher than the RMB price, China’s export arbitrage window has been open. The shutdown of a PLANT in the United States in May caused a shortfall in international supplies, leading to more exports from China.
From the perspective of major trading partners, Turkey exported the most from January to May, with a total of 7,677.36 tons, accounting for 10.1% of the total export volume. India followed with 8.7%; Third is the United Arab Emirates, with 7.9%.
The pattern of small imports and large exports may be maintained throughout the year
Because of the high international energy price and the high production cost abroad, the price of usd is higher than that of RMB. It is understood that although the price of propylene glycol in Europe began to fall in June, but at present there is still room for arbitrage inside and outside the market, there are still many export opportunities in China. In terms of imports, domestic demand is concentrated in medicine, food, tobacco and other fields and needs to rely on imports, while domestic self-sufficiency is also improving. Therefore, propylene glycol is expected to maintain the pattern of more exports and less imports, which will also help ease domestic supply pressure.