China PG & DMC: Trend up and down, unit profit remains good

【 Introduction 】 In August, the prices of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate in China rose and then fell. Specifically, propylene glycol fell first and then rose, and dimethyl carbonate rose first and then fell. Under the background of high prices of propylene oxide, the profit of PO transesterification plant is still at a high level, although it has decreased somewhat.

Propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate rise and fall
In August, the market price of propylene glycol in China fell first and then rose. Although the decline in July continued in the first ten days, the price rebounded strongly from the middle of the year, mainly due to the increase of export orders and the news of the planned overhaul of some units in Shandong at the end of the month, which improved the enthusiasm of market stocking and gradually increased the price. As of August 29, the price of Shandong market reference 9100-9200 yuan/ton acceptance factory, compared with July 29, 7500-7800 yuan/ton price increased by 1400-1600 yuan/ton.
The price trend of dimethyl carbonate is just opposite to that of propylene glycol. Due to the advance of the restart time of the device, the price of dimethyl carbonate fluctuates higher in the middle and early days. And into the middle and late market new single transaction turned weak, coupled with the news that the overhaul device is about to restart, the factory let the shipping, the price center of gravity downward. As of August 29, the price in Shandong market was 6300-6500 yuan/ton, which was 400-500 yuan/ton lower than the price of 6700-7000 yuan/ton on July 29.

Raw material price range shock monthly average cost slightly increased
In August, the domestic propylene oxide market showed irregular “N” -shaped trend. In the first ten days of this month, the price was mainly stuck. In the middle and late days, with the price of raw materials rising, the cost support became stronger, and the supply side was tightened due to the maintenance of some factories. The supply side was ready to support the market again, and the offer went up. Late although there is a narrow fall, but near the end of the market supply is tight, the focus of discussion again narrow to go higher.
From the perspective of the cost of the PO transesterification plant, according to the production cost calculation model of the propylene glycol/dimethyl carbonate co-generation plant, the average cost in August was about 8383 yuan/ton, which was 0.31% higher than that in July. Therefore, the cost of PO transesterification plant did not change much in August, and there was a slight increase.

Profits at the PO transesterification plant remained healthy
Although the market prices of DMC and PG have fluctuated in August, the interconversion between the two enabled the PO Transesterification Plant to supplement its revenue, and the profit remained healthy even when the PG price fell below the raw material PO price in the first ten days. In conclusion, the profit of PO transesterification plant in August was maintained at about 3000 yuan/ton, and the profitability of the plant was maintained at a high level.
Looking back to 2022, although the overall device profit was less than the level of 2021, it still remained in a relatively respectable range. Although the price of dimethyl carbonate may fall in September, the price of propylene glycol is expected to remain high, and the overall production unit profit is expected to change little.