Demand expansion has become the “main engine” driving the market upward after April, and this logic will continue in the long run.
Since bottoming out at the end of March, the domestic maleic anhydride market has continued to perform strongly after April. As of April-16, the solid outbound price in East China and other places has risen to around 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton from the market low of 8,500 yuan/ton in late March, and it will return after less than half a month. To the ten thousand yuan range. Although the overall downward trend of the maleic anhydride market in March is completely different, it is not difficult to find that the main driving force dominating the market trend remains the same as long as the recent market trend is reviewed, and it still comes from the demand side, especially the major downstream unsaturated resins. market.
From the perspective of the trend of unsaturated resins, the overall market trend in March was not good, and it has only gradually recovered since the second half of the year. As a product that is greatly affected by the upstream market, the price of resin will passively follow the raw material market after the Spring Festival in the rising tide of bulk chemicals. But at the same time, downstream resin companies that have already stocked lack the willingness to follow up with high-priced raw materials that have soared in a short period of time. Poor market transactions have caused resin companies to be unable to transfer high cost pressures to the downstream market, and the operation of the industrial chain is blocked. As a result, mainstream resin companies were under pressure to reduce their load and production. By mid-to-late March, the operating load of unsaturated resin companies had dropped from around 34% in the first ten days to around 28%, and the demand for maleic anhydride and other raw materials also declined.
But the market turning point is coming soon. After mid-March, the prices of major raw materials such as styrene continued to fluctuate and fall, the cost pressure of resin companies eased, and offers also decreased. Terminal companies’ resistance gradually eased, and as the temperature warmed up and the initial raw material inventory continued to digest, the start of construction gradually increased. . Therefore, after entering April, the order situation of unsaturated resin companies has improved significantly, and the installation load has gradually increased. As of this week, the overall start of the domestic unsaturated resin market has rapidly increased to a high near 47%, which is faster than the low near 28% in the previous period. An increase of 19 percentage points.
The rapid increase in business starts, and the recovery of raw material replenishment demand. According to statistics, based on the start of the resin market this week, the daily output of resin companies has reached 7,649 tons, an increase of 2,604 tons from the end of March, an increase of 51.62%; the domestic daily demand for maleic anhydride reached 3,019 tons, an increase from the end of March. 496 tons, an increase of 19.66%. Based on the current daily production of 2876 tons of maleic anhydride, there has been a supply gap of about 140 tons on the supply and demand side of maleic anhydride, which means that the market has changed from oversupply to undersupply since this week, and the social inventory accumulated in the previous period is also at a rapid pace. During the digestion process, this provides the market with sufficient upward momentum.
From the perspective of the market outlook, taking into account factors such as the seasonal peak season of the terminal market and the stocking before the “May Day” holiday, it is expected that the market demand for major products such as unsaturated resin may remain at a high level, and the demand side can still provide an upward momentum for the maleic anhydride market. Before the “May 1st” holiday, the domestic maleic anhydride market price may still be in a state of easy rise but difficult fall.