1. Market review this month: Weak fluctuations, average price down
As of the close of the 26th of this month, the average price of maleic anhydride in the main market was 6,375 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous month, an increase of 2.28%; down 525 yuan/ton from the average price of the same period last year, a decrease of 7.61%.
2. Analysis of driving factors: The market supply recovered relatively quickly after the holiday, and the price was under pressure
Although the operation of downstream enterprises gradually increased after the Spring Festival, the terminal demand had not yet returned to normal levels by the end of the month. Most downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand for maleic anhydride, and new orders were generally not active; at the beginning of the holiday, the operation of maleic anhydride units was relatively low, and the supply-side support continued. Maleic anhydride factories generally raised prices at the opening, but after the middle of the month, the maleic anhydride units that had been overhauled in the early stage resumed production one after another. The rapid increase in supply compressed the room for maleic anhydride prices to continue to rise, and also pushed up the cost of raw materials, thereby limiting the downward space of maleic anhydride prices. The market then turned into a narrow range of fluctuations.
3. Market outlook for the next three months: The market may maintain weak fluctuations
Overall, Zhuochuang Information expects that the overall Chinese maleic anhydride market may fluctuate weakly in the next three months; short-term price fluctuations are still mainly based on changes in inventory and new maleic anhydride unit operation, or showing a decline-rise-fall trend. It is expected that the price range in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets may be around 5,800-6,600 yuan/ton.
In the next three months, the maleic anhydride market will maintain a strong supply and weak demand pattern, which will suppress prices for a long time. Although the traditional peak season of downstream industries is coming after March, and demand will also recover faster, there are also many plans to put new maleic anhydride production capacity into production. Under the pressure of negative factors on the supply side, it is difficult for prices to have a long-term positive performance, or they will still fluctuate in a narrow range in the short and medium term around the changes in the start-up of supply-side equipment. However, there are still certain variables in the commissioning of some new maleic anhydride production capacity. If the increase in supply volume is not as expected, the fluctuation range of market prices will also increase.
(Source: SCI99)