In 2023, the overall performance of China’s propylene glycol import and export is: the number of imports is reduced, and the number of exports is increased. The main reason for this change is the increase of domestic production capacity, which in turn affects the increase of supply-side competition, and the increase of export quantity alleviates the supply pressure to a certain extent.
Domestic propylene glycol plant capacity increased, the first half of the year output rose
In China, the process of propylene glycol plant is mainly PO transesterification, and the production capacity of water treatment plant is less. In 2022, 40,000 tons of water legal equipment will be added in China per year, and the PO transesterification method will also expand the plant capacity. By the end of 2022, the domestic propylene glycol production capacity was 605,400 tons, an increase of 35.92% from the end of 2021. Therefore, entering 2023, in addition to the shutdown of individual devices, other devices maintained normal operation levels, and the domestic propylene glycol production increased by 17.27% in the first half of the year.
In the first half of the year, the import price of propylene glycol fell
From the import volume, from January to June, China’s cumulative import of propylene glycol was 32,833.19 tons, a decrease of 3.94%; In terms of months, only the number of imports in February and March was higher than the same period last year, and the number of imports in other months was lower than the same period last year to varying degrees. From the point of view of the average import price, the average import price of each month from January to June is not higher than 1500 US dollars/ton, while the average import price of each month in the same period last year is more than 2300 US dollars/ton. The top three major trading partners are: Thailand, South Korea and the United States, with no change in ranking compared with 2022.
In the first half of the year, the export volume of propylene glycol increased and the price fell
From the export volume, from January to June, China’s cumulative propylene glycol export volume was 96,589.16 tons, an increase of 4.92%; In terms of months, the number of exports from January to March was higher than the same period last year, the number of exports in May was basically the same as the same period last year, and the number of exports in April and June was slightly lower than the same period last year. From the point of view of the average export price, the average export price of each month from January to June is not higher than 1300 US dollars/ton, while the average export price of each month in the same period last year is more than 1800 US dollars/ton. The top three major trading partners are: Russia, Turkey and India, with no change in ranking compared with 2022.
The change of export quantity in the second half of the year is still one of the factors affecting the domestic market price
From the impact of import and export on the domestic market, most of the imported propylene glycol is food/pharmaceutical grade, and the impact on the industrial grade market is small. At present, the export market is an effective way to ease the domestic supply pressure. Winter is the peak season for foreign demand. Considering the seasonal demand, the fourth quarter is the peak season for the export of propylene glycol in China, while the domestic demand for propylene glycol is in the transition time from strong to weak. Therefore, the number of export orders is more important to the change of supply and demand in the domestic market, and is one of the important factors affecting the price.