[Introduction] Looking back at the propylene glycol market in the first half of 2022, the overall domestic performance is high -demand and low demand, and the price is a trend of shock decline. Among them, a wave of bombers in the export boosting price in May, but as the export order decreases, the market price has opened up. The road of falling; the start of the second half of the year has broken down. It is expected that the market rebound opportunity in the second half of the year may be lower than the first half of the year from September to October.
From January to June, the price of propylene glycol in China generally manifested as a trend of shock decline, which fluctuated with the trend of “rising-fall-up-rising-fall”; in early January, the average price of Shandong market price was 16,250 yuan/ton accepting factory. The price of 12250 yuan/ton was issued, and the price fell 24.62%from the beginning of January. The high price in the first half of the year appeared in mid -February, and the average price of the Shandong market was issued by the factory at 17,250 yuan/ton; the low point appeared at the end of April and early May, and the average price of the Shandong market was out of the factory at 11,200 yuan/ton.
The main reason for the decline in prices is that the domestic downstream demand is weak, especially in March to April for the expected improvement of demand, but the lack of downstream construction has increased the pressure of propylene glycol inventory and the factory allows the factory to ship the shipment. The rise in prices is mainly driven by the export market. In early May, a taronol device of a factory in the United States stopped, the international market supply gap, and China’s export orders increased to cause staged supply tensions and market prices higher.
Out of production increased by 30% year -on -year
From the perspective of the installation in the first half of the year, the maintenance devices mainly include Shandong Depp, Shunxin, Verx, and Shaanxi Yunhua Green Energy. The time is concentrated in April-May. According to statistics, the average load of propylene glycol from January to June was about 82%, an increase of 17 percentage points compared with the same period last year; from January to June, the domestic propion glycol output was estimated to be about 183,000 tons, which was 141,000 tons from January to June last year. Increased by 42,000 tons, an increase of 30%year -on -year.
The downstream construction is lower than the same period last year
Take the work of unsaturated resin as an example. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival from January to February, the market supply and demand were pale, and the overall construction of the resin factory continued to be low. In March, due to the tightening of logistics capacity of East China, North China, The situation was not good. In May, resin companies started to rise slightly. However, due to high temperature weather in the northern regions in June, the downstream demand faded, and the short -term stops of enterprises and the reduction of burden and hedging increased again. In the first half of the year, the unsaturated resin market started average around 25%, 5 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
The total export volume increased by 24% year -on -year
From January to June, the number of domestic propylene glycol exports was 88173.3 tons, an increase of 17175.32 tons from 70977.98 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 24%month-on-month. Due to high energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas, the production cost of foreign devices is under pressure, which has continued to open the arbitrage window of the internal and external disks, which is conducive to China’s export. The increase in the number of exports has also become a strong support for rising prices in the first half of the year, and the weakening of export orders is also one of the reasons for the decline in price.
The profit space is maintained at a high level
In the first half of the year, the raw material epoxyxane has increased the price level, and the price level has continued to move down. Although there is a rebound in the middle, the price shock is low in general, which also reduces the pressure on the production cost of propylene glycol. However, the decline in the prices of glycol and combined product carbonate has narrowed the profit space of PO ester exchange. From January to June, the average profit of the PO ester exchange method was 5318 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 84.62%, and a 40.36%decrease from the previous month. Generally, the profit level in the first half of the year was still considerable.
Broken in the second half of the year, the transfer may be in September
Judging from the market in the second half of the year, in July, due to the loss of export market support, the downstream unsaturated resin worked low, and the market price fell again and again. The terminal demand in August is still in the off -season, and the price of propylene oxide of the raw material has also fallen, and the market is expected to maintain weakness. The traditional peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is coming. It is expected that the demand to rise will drive the market price to rebound. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in export orders. The price level is expected to break through the price last year even if the price rebound in September to October.