Introduction:
In 2020, the domestic maleic anhydride market has an obvious feature of “low before high”, and the trend in the second half of last year is completely different, and the price amplitude of the whole year is much higher than that of previous years.
In 2020, the trend of domestic maleic anhydride market is fluctuating, with obvious characteristics of “high before and low after”, and the price amplitude of the whole year is much higher than that of previous years. June as the watershed, on the second half of the market trend is very different. In the first half of the year, under the influence of a rare public health event in history, many unfavorable factors from the cost and demand side simultaneously pressure the market, resulting in the low range of maleic anhydride price of 4000-6000 yuan/ton for a long time. In the second half of the year, the domestic and foreign demand in the early period was released in the third and fourth quarters, and the boom of maleic anhydride market continued to rise, driving the price of maleic anhydride to new highs successively, which broke the RMB 10,000 mark twice in September and November. From the data point of view, according to the statistics, in 2020, the average price of maleic anhydride in major domestic markets will reach 6,880 yuan/ton, up 3.83% year on year; The annual market around 4000-11500 yuan/ton range, high and low price difference reached 7500 yuan/ton; The high price of 11,000-11,500 yuan per ton is a new high since 2018.
First quarter: dark period
The market in the first quarter mainly revolves around the public health event, which is a sudden factor. Public health events influence gradually from before and after the Spring Festival in the domestic, to control the spread of the things, since the mid to late January around tightly controlled road transport and personnel flow, not only across the maleic anhydride downstream enterprises generally after commencement date postponed until mid to late February, maleic anhydride production enterprises are also a raw material supply and tired library crisis, resulting in maleic anhydride appeared in the decline of the synchronous data on both ends of the supply and demand, which hit a record low levels, and the market also have a long time since after opening of the price no city state, price since the first of 6700-7100 yuan/ton continued downward, it may be said “to the dark period”. After three months, initial results were achieved in China’s fight against the epidemic, and economic activities resumed in an orderly manner. However, overseas public health events began to break out, the international financial and commodity markets appeared huge turbulence, the international oil price suffered an epic drop, the cost of heavy bear hit the domestic market one after another, and the price of maleic anhydride fell hard to stop. The average maleic anhydride price in the first quarter of 2020 was 6,244 yuan/ton, down 7.65% from the fourth quarter of 2018 and 8.22% from the same period last year.
Second quarter: recovery period
The second quarter market gradually out of the gloom, but still affected by some inertia factors. At the beginning of April, the market still fell inertially, with the price of 4,000-4,300 yuan/ton creating the lowest value in the past 12 years since the record was set. But domestic public health events has been basically eliminated, downstream enterprise starts gradually returned to normal levels, combined with the international oil prices bottomed out to around $40 a barrel, demand and cost side appeared positive, maleic anhydride market gradually return to a normal logic operation, not only the price since the bottom quickly recover, and in just two weeks to rebound in 1300-2000 yuan/ton, which, with some market participants, emotional catharsis. Subsequently, the market price will maintain in 5000-6500 yuan/ton range of oscillating operation. The average maleic anhydride price in the second quarter was 5,720 yuan/ton, down 8.39% from the previous quarter and 9.39% year-on-year.
Third quarter: harvest time
In the third quarter, the market gradually entered the traditional peak season, and the prosperity of the whole industry chain began to improve. After entering July, the market still maintained a narrow shock trend, but after August, maleic anhydride production enterprises staged production and maintenance increased, the market supply significantly contracted, and the strengthening of the good supply side pushed the market into a rising period. Due to the same period the downstream unsaturated resin, and other enterprises does not appear as normal in the off-season starts falling, and so on and so forth, make the market demand from the stable support all the time, this is not only driven by synchronization of supply and demand at both ends of the gains achieved a staggering 3800-4300 yuan/ton, price high of 9800-10500 yuan/ton was refreshed the price highs since 2018. The average maleic anhydride price in the third quarter was 7,057 yuan/ton, up 23.37% from the second quarter and 6.42% year-on-year.
Fourth quarter: peak period
The fourth quarter saw more volatility, but it also reached its highest point of the year. The start-up level of downstream resin enterprises picked up again in October and reached the highest level in the year of 45% in early November. The higher start-up level brought about a rapid increase in downstream market demand. Drived by the strong demand, maleic anhydride in the major markets once again into a hot state of hard to find goods, there is a market priceless, the market price has been rising since late October and the increase rapidly expanded, to the middle of November reached 11000-11500 yuan/ton, refresh the price since 2018 high. However, with the arrival of the cold winter weather, the resin market gradually entered the off-season of the industry, and the air pollution control and other factors in the north of China, such as the impact of the resin enterprises in North China, East China and other places, the start of the resin enterprises since the middle of November has continued to decline, maleic anhydride price also stopped rising and fell. The average maleic anhydride price in the fourth quarter was 8,474 yuan/ton, up 20.08% from the third quarter and 25.76% from the same period last year.
exp1@gzchem.com/info@gcresin-paint.com 2021-1-8