The current sluggish upstream market has created greater profit margins for benzene process maleic anhydride. As the contradiction between supply and demand in the upstream market is still difficult to alleviate, it is expected that the high-profit pattern of benzene MA can still be maintained.
Continuing the strong market in the previous period, this week’s domestic maleic anhydride main market transaction center continued to rise, especially in North China benzene process maleic anhydride increased the most, the highest price has reached 6000 yuan / ton. Due to the weakness of the upstream benzene market during the same period, the profit of domestic benzene maleic anhydride hit a new high during the year. According to statistics, as of this Friday, the theoretical gross profit of the benzene process enterprises with hydrogenated benzene as the main raw material reached 1579 yuan/ton, and the coking benzene raw material enterprises reached 1869 yuan/ton, far exceeding the normal butane process maleic anhydride enterprises. 960 yuan/ton.
Once upon a time, the huge raw material price gap between the benzene process and the n-butane process made the production cost of benzene process maleic anhydride high, and suffered a long-term loss of money, while the n-butane process maleic anhydride shrouded in the aura of high profits was temporarily unsuccessful. two. However, after March 2020, the spread of the new crown epidemic has led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, and the influx of overseas sources has caused a sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the benzene market. The price difference between raw materials and the n-butane method is rapidly narrowing. According to the statistics, the average price difference between hydrogenated benzene and n-butane in January-February 2020 is still 1179 yuan/ton, but the average price difference between the two from March to July is only 400 yuan/ton. The price of alkane has achieved a surpassing the price of hydrogenated benzene and the spread continues to widen to around 300 yuan/ton, so it is not surprising that the profitability of the benzene process maleic anhydride surpassed that of the n-butane process.
Looking at the market outlook, it is believed that the high profitability pattern of benzoic acid maleic anhydride may still be sustainable for a long time.
First, international oil prices cannot break upward in the short term
The epidemic continues to spread globally, and the number of newly diagnosed cases in South Asia, Latin America and other places has repeatedly broken new highs. Although good news such as recent progress in vaccine research and development has stimulated international oil prices to rise, there is still a lot of uncertainty before the actual implementation of the vaccine. At the same time, as Sino-US relations become tense again, market concerns have spread. It can be said that the recent news is dominated by negative factors, and the crude oil market lacks confidence and lacks momentum to further attack. In short, the outlook for international oil prices may continue the recent high-level consolidation. It is difficult to break the current deadlock and there is no clear guidance for downstream chemicals.
Second, the contradiction between supply and demand in benzene is difficult to break
In the absence of clear directional guidance for international oil prices, the later trend of the benzene market is still driven by its own fundamentals. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the petroleum benzene market is still very obvious.
China was the first to successfully fight the epidemic in the world, and its domestic economic development was gradually on the right track. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter successfully turned positive, becoming one of the few countries that achieved positive economic growth. However, the domestic boom has caused the continuous influx of overseas sources of pure benzene safe-haven supplies, and the unloading pressure of ports has continued to increase. According to statistics, as of July 22, East China’s pure benzene port trade inventory reached 268,000 tons, an increase of 4 million tons from July 15. It is expected that some ocean-going cargo will arrive from the end of July to the beginning of August. The unloading pressure of East China Port may continue after mid-August. In addition, the maintenance of petroleum benzene installations in the third quarter is limited and the new installations are about to be launched. It is believed that the entire third quarter of the petroleum benzene market It will still face greater pressure to destock, and there will be no real improvement in prices. Under the drag of petroleum benzene, the crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene markets are also under pressure.
To sum up, the contradiction between supply and demand in the third quarter will continue to suppress the price trend of the upstream benzene market of maleic anhydride. It is expected that the high profit pattern of domestic benzene-based maleic anhydride may continue to be maintained.