The executive price of liquid anhydride in the main factory has been reduced by 300 yuan to 8950 yuan/ton again, which is lower than the low price of the last wave and 350 yuan/ton lower than the previous wave. The production pressure of maleic anhydride factory is also obvious.
Take the price of Shandong liquid anhydride as an example, since the middle and late June, Shandong liquid anhydride has dropped from the round peak of 9,500 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton, the decline has reached 10.53%. At the current price, liquid anhydride has fallen below the low point of the previous market, but at present, maleic anhydride still lacks effective support. Under the situation of butane maleic anhydride factory not reducing production and weak demand, maleic anhydride faces a new wave of cost and shipment pressure.
At present maleic anhydride market visible positive factors are cost support.
As of press time, the price of n-butane in Shandong has closed at RMB 6,050 / ton, and the production cost of butane process is RMB 8,276 / ton. According to the current executive price of liquid anhydride, the profit of butane process has been significantly narrowed. However, recently, n-butane has been in negative decline. Since 2021, n-butane production has increased, and the profit improvement of alkylation device also makes n-butane production significantly improved. Therefore, the number of enterprises exporting n-butane is also increasing. However, the risk of further decline in n-butane will also be narrowed, as the current price of n-butane has been inversely linked to raw material prices, the cost side may also support n-butane.
In other aspects, supply, demand, peripheral factors are difficult to support maleic anhydride.
In terms of supply, phenylene maleic anhydride market is almost stagnant, and the circulation of phenylene is relatively rare. Maleic anhydride and butane method, the current capacity utilization rate still remain high, xinjiang jinyuan before and after the end of June will restart, KaiLian jie has a short stop plan, the remaining giant run relatively stable, maleic anhydride butane law, therefore, no clear cut signal, supply is relatively stable, but if the maleic anhydride to cost line after the operation, do not rule out the small mill could have a short stop.
In terms of Demand, recent end demand has not improved, resin production was significantly lower in May and June influence to the raw material consumption ability, in addition, in late June to resin raw material prices decline, also affect the resin purchasing point of view, risk aversion under caution, and subject to the current terminal, resin tired library is intermittent, also increase the running resistance of resin, It will take time for resin demand to recover.
Peripheral view, run the main logic of the current price is the eu sanctions against Russia crude oil market under the tight supply of stack gas into the peak season of consumption and the trade-off between the fed continue tightening monetary policy, and under the background of European gas shortage of crude oil demand still exists, the fundamentals of the tight supply of crude oil and has no obvious improvement, but the market’s worries about the global economic sentiment, In particular, the interest rate hikes by major central banks around the world have intensified the market’s concerns about the demand side, and also intermittently affected the operation of the commodity market, which also made the bulk operation have certain risks.
Taken together, the performance of the chemical industry chain each is disconnected with the trend of crude oil, resin industry chain link is still weak, but still maleic anhydride supply and demand gap, therefore, although the price of maleic anhydride executive has to factory production costs spread narrowed, butane method factory production cost pressure, but if demand side still has no obvious improvement, the price of maleic anhydride could continue to low pressure, Risks to downside remain. At present, the difference between supply and demand of maleic anhydride will continue. Under the background of no improvement in demand, low price will hardly stimulate the downstream gas buying significantly. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that the factory will stabilize the market sentiment in the future, so the trend and space for maleic anhydride to continue falling will slow down and narrow.