Introduction
As of press time, the intention of the MMA market to rebound and rise has gradually become clear, and it has spread to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the domestic markets. At present, the actual spot price in East China has rebounded to around 9,500 yuan/ton, and there is room for further exploration.
Since the decline of the MMA rally in mid-to-early June, the price has been declining for a month and a half. During this period, regardless of whether it was factory parking guards or suppliers’ bidding prices, various positive releases were diluted in a short time. When the downstream is generally bearish, the short side on the supply side has continued to grow, and the number of long positions is difficult to hedge against the fragile falling market. Sellers who have not adjusted their long strategy in time have suffered different losses, whether they are factories or traders. In the midst of the misty and downturn in the market, the downstream does not dare to act rashly, staying vigilant and cautiously screening various positive signals released by the market. It can be said that since the previous 40 trading days, the MMA market has been a miserable world where both volume and price have fallen.
The market turned around on July 17th. The downstream terminal market first began subtle changes. An acrylic factory reported to the author that the number of customer orders had increased significantly year-on-year, and the low market price at this time had fallen below 9,000 yuan/ Tons, the downstream sensitivity to MMA price changes has increased to a certain extent. Subsequently, the MTO and acrylonitrile plant of a plant in East China was unexpectedly shut down due to power problems in the plant area. Although the MMA plant did not follow the upstream and shut down at the same time, the keen market participants have smelled the real good taste and turned short.
At the beginning of the market opening this week, most downstream users still chose not to listen or spread or believe the signals that the market is about to change. With the failure of the supply side to raise the price some time ago, in the sensitive period of the off-season, most businesses pay attention to the lowest price in the market and ignore the mainstream of the market. In addition, news of low prices for domestic and imported goods in the southwest is still being released. , This has caused a big impact on the mainstream market. After Monday afternoon, with the confirmation of the shutdown of the East China MMA device, the factories with low prices and accelerated shipments finally began to rescue the market.
In fact, the price of acetone this year is exceptionally bright, and the phenomenon of causing large-scale and substantial losses in the ACH plant has been well known in the industry. With the rebound of crude oil prices, C4 factories are no longer a low-key profitable role in the second quarter. The continuous decline of MMA prices has gradually threatened the cost line of C4 factories.
At the opening of the market on Tuesday, the Shandong factory took the lead in pulling up the test market. The market still has a certain resistance to the rash increase in prices, but with the delisting of low-priced sources, the focus of the firm has gradually increased. Subsequently, the supply of Mitsubishi series followed the market upward adjustment. The trade market also reacted quickly. Except for individual traders who still smashed prices with empty orders, most companies have tightened their low-end exports and their quotations have risen slightly in response to aggressively pushing up shipments. As the market bottomed out and rebounded, the market gradually became clear, downstream inquiries increased, and some users’ bottom-hunting willingness began to materialize as buying orders, but it was not common. There were still some users calmly waiting and watching, paying great attention to their own sales changes, and did not make aggressive advances to the raw material side. The reaction does not yet constitute the effect of the increase in volume.
What is certain is that the price of MMA bottomed out in a short-term rebound. As for whether it can continue to push up and how long the rebound will last, it is still difficult to say. Regarding the direction of the mid- and long-term market, most market participants have not yet established complete confidence, mainly based on the lack of substantial improvement on the demand side. The MMA equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is already in production and inventory, and the spot market is on the line. All the above still pose a certain obstacle to the rebound of the market. However, as the global economy recovers and the export environment is improving, the export sector of the ACR and emulsion resin industry has at least seen the dawn, rather than being at a loss before.
In fact, only a heavy upward movement is the most beneficial cornerstone for establishing an upward channel. If the trading volume can be effectively followed up, the uptrend can be continuously consolidated and form a guarantee for the continued rebound. Based on this, the author believes that the short-term market focus can be focused on the factory-side bidding and transaction volume, and at the same time screen out the sporadic empty orders in the market to avoid short-term runaways.