[Introduction] In the first half of 2021, the price of propylene glycol continued to rise despite the year-on-year decrease in domestic production and imports. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the price of propylene glycol will remain high and the average price may catch up with the year-on-year [udecrease in factory maintenance and exports. Half a year.
In the first half of 2021, the domestic propylene glycol price showed an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the year, the average price of the Shandong market was 12,100 yuan/ton. The average price of the Shandong market was 16,200 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 4100 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.88. %. The highest price in the first half of the year occurred at the end of April, and the average price in the Shandong market was 18,350 yuan/ton. Overall, in the first half of 2021, the Shandong market average price of 15,672.95 yuan/ton was accepted and delivered, which is a year-on-year increase of 129.24% from the average price of 6,836.78 yuan/ton in the first half of 2020.
The overall price increase in the first half of 2021 is mainly due to the long-term supply-demand imbalance. First, the supply of manufacturers continues to be in short supply. Second, the downstream raw material inventory continues to be low and the consumption of individual industries is decreasing. Third, the export market supports domestic prices, and the fourth is imports. The supply of goods is reduced.
Manufacturers’ spot supply continues to be in short supply: First, the status of manufacturers’ inventory and orders continued in the second half of 2020. In the first half of 2021, the factory order scheduling cycle has always been maintained at about 5-15 days, and the inventory has always been maintained at a low level. Basically 0 inventory; on the other hand, the overall operating load of manufacturers in the first half of 2021 was lower than the same period last year. According to information, the total domestic propylene glycol production in the first half of 2021 was 140,600 tons, compared with the national propylene glycol production in the first half of 2020, 179 thousand. Tons decreased by 38,400 tons.
The downstream raw material inventory continues to be low and the consumption of individual industries is decreasing: the average market price of propylene glycol will basically maintain at 6000-7000 yuan/ton before the second half of 2020, while the average price of propylene glycol in the first half of 2021 will be more than 15000 yuan/ton, which is huge downstream Under the cost pressure of propylene glycol, some downstream companies have adopted alternatives to replace propylene glycol, and some downstream companies have modified formulas to reduce the amount of propylene glycol added. The demand for propylene glycol in some downstream industries has decreased; in addition, under the continued high price of propylene glycol, the purchase of downstream industries has basically maintained rigid demand. Raw material inventories have always remained low.
The export market supports domestic prices: the export of propylene glycol from January to May of 2021 is 55,000 tons, and the export volume of propylene glycol from January to May in 2020 is 57,000 tons, a decrease of 2 million tons. Compared with the decrease in domestic production, the export volume of propylene glycol is still domestic The market price has greater support.
Reduced import sources: China’s imports of propylene glycol from January to May of 2021 are 29,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30,000 tons of imports from January to May of 2020 by 5,000 tons, although the decrease is only 1.7%, but in the context of domestic production reduction It is undoubtedly worse.
Entering July, the current price of propylene glycol is still at a high price of 16,000 yuan/ton or more, and the factory scheduling cycle is about 10 days, and the spot is hard to find. It is expected that the price will start with a slight increase in the second half of 2021. After that, the price of propylene glycol in the second half of the year is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the average price in the second half of the year may be higher than the average price in the first half of the year.
The first reason is that most companies did not carry out routine maintenance in the first half of 2021. It is expected that most manufacturers will arrange the maintenance period in the second half of the year, and the overall output of manufacturers in the second half of the year is expected to decrease year-on-year; in addition, the current overseas public environment is complex, and the start-up load of foreign propylene glycol plants is expected to be synchronized. With the downward trend and high market prices, domestic importers have greater risks in purchasing. It is expected that imports will continue to decrease year-on-year, and exports will remain at the level of last year; the third downstream elastomer polyether and unsaturated resin will enter the peak season in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the second half of the year The overall operating load increased, and demand increased compared with the first half of the year.
In summary, in the second half of the year, domestic production of propylene glycol will decrease, imports are expected to decrease year-on-year, and exports are expected to be basically the same year-on-year. Downstream demand is slightly better than that in the first half of the year. The average price of propylene glycol in the second half of the year may be higher than the average price in the first half of the year.