PG/DMC: Restricted transportation, pressure on stocks, and overall plant operating rate drops

[Introduction] Due to non-industry factors, transportation is limited, and PG and DMC manufacturers are more difficult in terms of raw material procurement and product shipment. In addition, the market recovery is slow, and downstream players have limited access to the market. Except for a small number of units that are more stable in operation, most units have reduced their load and stopped production to avoid risks.

Due to the fact that many downstream factories have not recovered, and the willingness to make reservations before the start of production is weak, there is little trading in the market. The industry is willing to wait and see, and the manufacturers’ willingness to adjust prices is weak.

On the supply side: under less production pressure, the load has been gradually reduced

Due to the difficulty of input of raw materials and the pressure of product inventory, most manufacturers choose to reduce the load or stop to avoid risks. The overall domestic load is low. The overall operating load of PG is about 50.4%, and the overall operating load of DMC is about 47.3%. Compared with the usual period, the operating load of 80% to 90% has been greatly reduced, and the inventory pressure of the stable operation of the device is also greater. If the market recovery is still slow, the device load may still decrease.

On the demand side: slow downstream recovery, weak demand

Resumption of work in the downstream market is slow. PG, the main downstream unsaturated resin, was originally planned to resume after the Lantern Festival. Currently, it is still in the state of production suspension. The load on polyether units is also low, and demand support is weak. DMC’s main downstream polycarbonate and electrolyte solvents are also mostly reduces load and stops due to raw material transportation restrictions and more inventory. The traditional downstream solvents are mostly stopped before the holiday, the resumption of work is slow, and the demand is limited.

In terms of transportation: traffic recovery is slow, and transportation restrictions remain

The current limited transportation continues, the recovery is slow, the transportation vehicles are limited, the delivery and transportation of PG and DMC is still difficult, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The raw materials of most factories need to be mined externally, and the low stock of raw materials also restricts the production of products and the progress of trading. Only a small amount of trading was resumed in part of the transportation recovery area, which reduced the pressure on inventory and the willingness of suppliers to adjust prices was not high.

Market Forecast: Under the continuation of short-term transportation restrictions, it is difficult for the upstream and downstream markets to recover

Although the transportation in the main production area, Shandong, has gradually resumed, policies in different regions must be different. In addition, limited transport vehicles are available. Only a small number of peripheral transactions have limited relief for supplier inventory. Substantial transactions are still light. The negative decline and parking expectations continue; after the market recovery, it is expected that suppliers will mostly control the willingness to control inventory shipments, and propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate have strong downward risks.