Introduction: In December, most domestic unsaturated polyester resin plants have been producing stably, and the supply has been increasing, but the demand side has not been able to follow up well. The demand for fiberglass has entered the off-season and procurement is proceeding step by step. The terminal orders for stone demand have been mediocre, and there is little willingness to increase inventory. The price of raw material maleic anhydride has risen sharply recently, driving up the market price of unsaturated resin. The market supply and demand game continues, and prices have risen narrowly.
Maleic anhydride pushed up the price sharply, while unsaturated resin passively followed the rise
Since the end of the year, most unsaturated resin factories have been producing stably with an operating rate of more than 40%, but the price has remained low. This week, due to the sharp increase in raw material maleic anhydride, the market price of unsaturated resin has risen narrowly, with an increase of 100-300 yuan/ton. The spot price of Jiangsu FRP 196# is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous month. Although the price has risen due to the high raw material prices, it is still at a low level for the year and is unable to continue to rise.
The traditional off-season is coming, and the industry’s supply is stable and demand is falling
From the current supply side: except for the decline in individual devices, most domestic companies maintain stable production.
From the perspective of raw materials:
Styrene: Crude oil has been weak and volatile recently. Although the pure benzene end is gradually improving, it has no positive driving force for styrene and only provides bottom support. The domestic supply of styrene has gradually increased. Although the overall wide balance continues to be maintained, some domestic factories have been blocked from shipping, and the arrival of goods at the port is not obvious. In addition, the downstream demand is good, the docks and factories have stable pick-up, and the port inventory remains at a low level, which is conducive to the near-end supply to support the price. Therefore, it is expected that the price of styrene will still fluctuate in a narrow range next week, and the spot price in Jiangsu will be between 8850-9000 yuan/ton.
Maleic anhydride: The recent increase in maleic anhydride has exceeded market expectations. Most downstream companies have avoided the production cost risks brought by high prices. The factories’ high-price orders are not sustainable, and some holders have gradually settled shipments, which also affects the buying and selling mentality. At present, in the game between supply and demand, the focus is mainly on the resumption of production of parking devices. There is a probability of resumption of production next week. At that time, the price of maleic anhydride will fall under pressure from high levels and will quickly drop to around 6,000. However, if the supply does not recover as expected, although the supplier may still support the market, the downstream may still delay replenishment. It is not ruled out that there may be load reduction or parking operations to avoid the risks brought by increased production costs. Therefore, the maleic anhydride market is prone to fall and difficult to rise recently. Pay attention to the progress of supply and demand next week.
Phthalic anhydride: At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride industry has low inventory, which provides certain support to the market. However, the price difference of ortho-naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply has widened, and the downstream high-level follow-up has turned weak. It is expected that the domestic phthalic anhydride market may diverge, the ortho-phthalic anhydride market may fall slightly, and the naphthalene phthalic anhydride market may stabilize.
Near the end of the year, most unsaturated resin units are operating at a low level. If the inventory is high, the voluntary shutdown will be more frequent, and the overall supply trend tends to decline.
In the later period, the possibility of continued increase in raw material prices is low. In addition, near the end of the year, downstream demand is also weakening. It is difficult for unsaturated resin prices to continue to rise. The market is temporarily stable, but because it is difficult to have a good expectation of demand, the inventory of each factory is under pressure to varying degrees. If the market wants to continue to rise, it is difficult to have an optimistic expectation.
(Source: Oilchem)